Mastering the Market Cycle

"Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side" от Howard Marks е труд, който няма нужда от реклама. Разбирането за цикличността на пазарите е изключително важна за правилния подход към инвестирането. Извадил съм отделни цитати, които съм сметнал за важни и значими. Те са малка част от фундамента който се съдържа книгата, с което искам да кажа, че горещо ви я препоръчвам.

1. "In investing, there is nothing that always works, since the environment is always changing, and investors’ efforts to respond to the environment cause it to change further."

2. "The odds change as our position in the cycles changes. If we don’t change our investment stance as these things change, we’re being passive regarding cycles; in other words, we’re ignoring the chance to tilt the odds in our favor."

3. "If we have the same information as others, analyze it the same way, reach the same conclusions and implement them the same way, we shouldn’t expect that process to result in outperformance."

4. "In my view, the greatest way to optimize the positioning of a portfolio at a given point in time is through deciding what balance it should strike between aggressiveness and defensiveness."

5. "When we’re getting value cheap, we should be aggressive; when we’re getting value expensive, we should pull back."

6. "For each event in economics, business and markets (among other things), if only one thing could happen—if there could be only one outcome—and if it was predictable, there would, of course, be no uncertainty or risk."

7. "Regardless of what’s going on with regard to the economy and company profits (that is, as the academics say, ceteris paribus or “all other things being equal”), the outlook for returns will be better when investors are depressed and fearful (and thus allow asset prices to fall) and worse when they’re euphoric and greedy (and drive prices upward)."

8. "Markets rarely go from “underpriced” to “fairly priced” and stop there. Usually the fundamental improvement and rising optimism that cause markets to recover from depressed levels remain in force, causing them to continue right through “fairly priced” and on to “overpriced.”

9. "There’s an old story about a group of blind men walking down the road in India who come upon an elephant. Each one touches a different part of the elephant—the trunk, the leg, the tail or the ear—and comes up with a different explanation of what he’d encountered based on the small part to which he was exposed. We are those blind men. Even if we have a good understanding of the events we witness, we don’t easily gain the overall view needed to put them together. Up to the time we see the whole in action, our knowledge is limited to the parts we’ve touched. . . "

10. "The events in the life of a cycle shouldn’t be viewed merely as each being followed by the next, but—much more importantly—as each causing the next. For example:

As the phenomenon swings toward an extreme, this movement gives it energy, which it stores. Eventually its increased weight makes it harder for the swing to continue further from the midpoint, and it reaches a maximum beyond which it can no longer proceed."

11. "Trees don’t grow to the sky, and few things go to zero."

12. "Success carries within itself the seeds of failure, and failure the seeds of success."

13. "People don’t worry about missing opportunities; they worry about losing money."

14. "Investing consists of dealing with the future but the future isn’t knowable, that’s where the risk in investing comes from."

15. "If riskier assets could be counted on to produce higher returns, they by definition wouldn’t be riskier."

16. "Risk is high when investors feel risk is low."

17. "The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there’s no risk. By the same token, the safest (and most rewarding) time to buy usually comes when everyone is convinced there’s no hope."

18. "Skepticism and pessimism aren’t synonymous. Skepticism calls for pessimism when optimism is excessive. But it also calls for optimism when pessimism is excessive."

19. "Excessive risk tolerance contributes to the creation of danger, and the swing to excessive risk aversion depresses markets, creating some of the greatest buying opportunities."

20. "The credit cycle can be easily understood through the metaphor of a window. In short, sometimes it’s open and sometimes it’s closed. And, in fact, people in the financial world make frequent reference to just that: “the credit window,” as in “the place you go to borrow money.” When the window is open, financing is plentiful and easily obtained, and when it’s closed, financing is scarce and hard to get. Finally, it’s essential to always bear in mind that the window can go from wide open to slammed shut in just an instant. "

21. "During panics, people spend 100% of their time making sure there can be no

losses . . . at just the time that they should be worrying instead about missing out on great opportunities."

22. "If I could ask only one question regarding each investment I had under consideration, it would be simple: How much optimism is factored into the price? A high level of optimism is likely to mean the favorable possible developments have been priced in; the price is high relative to intrinsic value; and there’s little margin for error in case of disappointment. But if optimism is low or absent, it’s likely that the price is low; expectations are modest; negative surprises are unlikely; and the slightest turn for the better would result in appreciation."

23. "Most raging bull markets are abetted by an upsurge in the willingness to provide capital, usually imprudently. Likewise, most collapses are preceded by a wholesale refusal to finance certain companies, industries, or the entire gamut of would-be borrowers."

24. "When all optimism has been driven out, and panicked risk aversion is everywhere, it becomes possible to reach a point where prices can’t go any lower."

25. "“What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end” tells you 80% of what you have to know about market cycles and their impact. Warren Buffett has said much the same thing even more concisely: “First the innovator, then the imitator, then the idiot.”

26. "There’s only one form of intelligent investing, and that’s figuring out what something’s worth and buying it for that price or less. Any investment movement that’s built around a concept other than the relationship between price and value is irrational."

27. "The investor’s goal is to position capital so as to benefit from future developments."

28. "“In investing, everything that’s important is counter-intuitive, and everything that’s obvious to everyone is wrong.”

29. “It’s different this time” are four of the most dangerous words in the business world.

В края, един цитат от Sheldon Stone, който описва много добре какво се случва циклично на пазарите -  “The air goes out of the balloon much faster than it went in.”

А, извода от всичко това е описан в тази поговорка:

Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.

Ако всичко дотук ви е било интересно, може да допълните картинката с този страхотен разговор между Michael Milken и Howard Marks:

В допълнение, насладете се ѝ тази лекция:

Ако трябва да перифразирам Хауърд Маркс за да пресъздам циклите при инвестирането, то би звучало така:

Инвеститорите, когато са в труден икономически период, не са склонни към риск и ограничават количествата на безразборни покупки като търсят само такива с високо качество. Висококачественото притежаване на активи води до ниски нива на загуби. Ниските нива на загуби карат инвеститорите да станат самодоволни и толерантни към риска. Толерантността към риск отваря инвеститорите за увеличено търсене и покупка на по-ниско качество активи. Покупките на нискокачествени активи води в крайна сметка до икономически трудности и до увеличаване на неизпълнението на обещаната възвръщаемост. Неизпълненията на възвръщаемост имат смразяващ ефект, като правят инвеститорите отново нетолератни към риск и с това затваряме цикъла.

Задължително тябва да се даде кредит(поне аз бих дал) на един дуг велик икономист, защото тезата на Маркс стъпва върху известния "Minsky moment", наречен на икономиста Хаймън Мински. Мински е абсолютно светило, и ако ви е интересно, заровете се в неговите категории за кредита, който са:

1. The hedge finance stage

2. The speculative finance stage

3. The Ponzi finance stage

За финал, препоръчвам на всеки решил да се занимава с финанси и търговия на стоковия пазар-ето тази книга.

Тя разглежда историята на лихвите, които са в основата на всичко в икономиката.

Интерактив Брокерс все още е най-добрия брокер за търговия у нас, а и по света. Ако все още нямате регистрация там -  ЦЪК